Nobody knows the future, so focus on what doesn’t change

Thanks.

Great job breaking the industry down to the important fundamentals!

...So does this mean my crystal ball's been lying to me ...darn.


JK, great article, thanks for the reminder.

Nice article Derek...

The only thing we can be sure of is the present moment... the past is a mirage, and the future may never come...

thanks for your ongoing inspiration...

Who doesn't like a safety net?! People thrive better when they have INSURANCE over their pending decisions and their futures. When they realize they can't have that, they settle for the next best thing which is ASSURANCE. However, you are on point - the best predictor of future sucesses are the past successes. No need to reinvent the wheel - knowing the successful components or fundamentals takes a good chunk of the think and guess work out of the equation.

>>> Just like we know there will be gravity, and water will still be wet, there are laws that don’t depend on predicting the future.

Can somebody here please explain how is it that the invariance in space and time of the laws of physics is not an assumption ?

Derek, very good point, of course know one has the crystal ball, and it's good advise to make music that you like to make, music that you enjoy listening too, because at the end of the day, if know one else buys or likes it, you still can enjoy it. Likely though, if you make it so you love it, many other like minded souls will as well, this has worked very well for me in my career ; )

Love it. Memorable melodies are in our souls forever. Basics and fundamentals are the cornerstone everything. Now I need to do what this email espouses.

--Who doesn’t like a safety net?! People thrive better when they have INSURANCE over their pending decisions and their futures--

The safety net is not completely investing your time and money in one answer because there is never any certainty. It's a little paranoid, but people who are over-invested in CDs or even digital downloads for that matter (note: learn a lesson from 8-tracks and cassettes) are naive in general to think that the industry would stay stagnant for an extended period of time. I used to the see the slogan "Move On" during the 2000 election, but we need to wave that flag in the music industry to remind us to keep us on our toes.

As for asking the question,"do I know the future," it wastes time. Instead make the future happen or become friends with the person who seems to be on the right track. And be ready to look ahead as soon as that comes to fruition.

Derek, yes, thanks. We don't know, but we love our music and yes, we hope that others will too. I play "old peoples" music

and with the baby boomers getting

older and older, I have hopes

that my tunes will sell more and

more in the future and that my

grandchildren will love getting

a little check every month after I am gone!

Hey Sivers, I've been reading all your inputs and love them. Just had to say, thnx for all the great info, knowledge and perception. You're awesome.

I've always lived by the motto" we pay for our own Laziness ". This means just keep doing it no matter what.

It's funny as we get older we find out we know less than we thought we did.

Better to keep working at things and leave a mark with our works.

The moment I think I know something I find out I things have changed.

I know one thing. My wife will always be abusive so time for a new wife!

Ha ! Of course I could be wrong right?

Great article.

Cheers,

John David Hart

It's always good to be reminded to get back to basics. It's easy to get caught up in the moment & forget the important things.

Right on, Derek! I like how you put it.

People fret and worry about the music industry, but as my mentor Tom Hess says, music industry is one of the most consistent, enduring industries there is. It's always been around, as long as there's been societies.

Good music is always in demand. What appeals to people do change with trends, but fundamental emotional connection is timeless. Bach and Beethoven still rock, and so do the Beatles. Good music is always in demand. You can't go wrong with good music.

ari

ps Here's a blog post I wrote on this subject.

Hi Derek, Very good point and something to really think about. We might not be able to predict the future, but we still have to set goals for ourselves and try to achieve them. We can only do that by working hard towards a brighter future and if we do achieve our goals, then our perdiction have been answered. Is setting a goal a prediction? If so, then my predictions have been answered, do you think so?. Whats the logic on this?. Talk to me.

*I* know the future... and predict u will read this comment~~~ :P jk~

Great article, Derek... as usual :)

CK

...and predict I cannot spell my name correctly...~~~ -_-

"CJ"

Your future is what you make it, work smart and you will made it

great comments!

all i can say is... if not now... when!

The best way to predict the future, is to create it.

Persistance is the key!

"When" is the only question.

Excellent!

Have you read The Black Swan? If you haven't - pick it up now! Great stuff about how and why it's impossible to predict the future based on the past, how we trick ourselves into predicting, and a lot more!

Thank you for this article. But also, thank you for caring enough to spend time and energy helping all of us. Your advice is always framed in such a way as to be valuable regardless of how we perceive it.

Thank you for being you.

T.C.

Quoting David Bruce Hughes :

>>> According to the Vedas, material things are temporary, but spiritual things are eternal. While the *manifestations* of the material energy are temporary and always changing, the *principle* of material creation is eternal, and therefore it is not an assumption that the basic laws of the material world are invariable, it is a well-known fact on which the whole process of creation, maintenance and dissolution of the material universe depends.

Clever, but to me you're making the same mistake of non-finality. Haven't you simply moved the assumption from "space-time invariance" to "authority of the Vedic laws" ?

i really needed to hear that i have gone to so many events, conferences, i went to berklee and i have had success but sometimes its the small consistent weekly accomplishments.

Good article! I take issue with the statement that noone knows the future as there is one book that gave over 300 specific predictions of one person's live - all fulfilled. Yea, it was the Bible so there must be something there! But as far as the music industry, I agree with you 100% as it has changed so much already, who knows where it's going!(If I get any inside info though I'll let you know! Ha!)

Thanks for the reminder, Derek!

Thank U for info Mr.Silvers :

I'm apart of the 21 century with my music because of CDbaby.com I have been reading the books on your list . My next CD will be a reflection of that . My Cd did'nt sale a lot on your website ,but it gives me a business since and I did sale some .I

Thank You,Musically your David Gordon

the truth of the matter is True Artists are going to do what they do any way and hope one hundred years from now some one pays attention to their work. That's all we got in the face of failure to make a profit from todays music market. Lets not forget Vincent Van Go.

IMHO, part of the problem is how technology and current events impacted the formation of great musicians and songwriters. In the 70's we did not have inexpensive home recording technology and the few good recording studios were usually reserved for record labels who paid for artists to record, and these artists did not even make it to their doors until the band had a proven track record and following, by gigging and touring, and had developed their skills to the extent a record company would be willing to foot the bill for a top notch studio and promotions, remember, there was no internet for free myspace promos, just traditional advertising, which at the time was very expensive. That weeded out the so-so, part-time bands and artists and left us with only the best who made it into the record stores.

Back then most musicians still could make a living full time by gigs and teaching, so they had more time to devote to honing their skills and to compose epic pieces of music. As time went by, I also witnessed a lot of venues that traditionally hosted live music moving into DJs(again, another result of cheap stereos and portable gear), weddings started using DJs, and the opportunities for fulltime musos(like me at the time) were quickly dissapearing as more clubs moved away from hiring live bands.

Now we have a "Triple-Whammy", as technology brings us the downloadable MP3, and there are SO MANY amateur part-time bands flooding the airwaves(which now also include indie internet radio), what happens is a sort of "Future Shock"(Alvin Toffler) where there are way too many choices of music, and the music scene becomes completely fragmented into so many pieces, it is so hard to find the gems out there....

CDBaby is a great alternative for the changing times, although I fear music is being so commoditized that it will be more like cable TV, in that you will pay for the stream of music, instead of buying individual artist CDs. This in turn will make it even harder for bands to stand out or to get paid royalties.. I see a return to bands playing in live clubs, having to earn a proven following and reputation, before they can try to sell any music, and maybe even consider that gigging is a good outlet and look at a CD as just a promotional tool to drive fans to your gigs ??

I miss the golden days of super bands like Steely Dan, Led Zeppelin, Yes, Genesis, etc..., but unfortunately this is a new era with new challenges for all of us, and very few musicians have the same environment that engendered so many giants... I am sure there are some mega musical souls who will still prevail, but their sandbox is now very fragmented and they won't be coddled by those who see the next Brittney as the only sure ticket to high volume sales....

Saturation will keep occurring once the population keeps rising in the music industry so with this being understood. It only makes sense that it would hard for anyone to know what happens in the music industry for the future. Only time could tell.

The future is in your(our) heart,in humans feelings(emotions).Love is the only future.The future is to follow your instint,to listen to your heart.The future is to continue working, to be there happens what happens.

The future of the musical industry is more than a need, is a human being need.

Because music will always be the link between human souls and human lifes,the musical industry will be the away to bring it to people,it doesn't matter the way we use to do it,the fact is that We need music to preserve our lifes, to improve together our souls and the human being existance. We can not survive without the communication of this two important elements.

Jean Paul said: Love will never pass away,so, music as a result of love,will never pass away either.

The future will create the way to protect it, thanks love.

Blad Labori

Hey Derek,

I agree. Great point! I think that we have a tendency to play it too safe today and don't have the nerve to take chances, so we want a sure shot. Record companys too. Copying what someone else did to increase chances of having a hit song.

And there is no such thing as a shure shot in art except most nudity and profanity increases ones chances to a degree. Honesty is the best policy to me.

Thank you for you great wisdom,

Marc Vee

Dear Derek!

Just right on the spot. Love your recent posts!

Getting back into the present moment is the only way to find all the information you need for the future.


Peter

Dear Derek,

I have been grateful to you ever since you started CDBaby.com and am thankful for all your good advice to me and to the young people who are starting out.. I have been singing and recording for more than 70 years. I can't believe it myself but I get up in the morning and start working, contacting, getting my music out, and it works.Music does not age. there is change in taste, and that is good. It's life and things change, but if you have a good product, its lasting. I am still selling and have made so many friends.

Music is the best communicator there is and it is very satisfying to touch another person and have them enjoy what you do.

Thank you again for your insight and for your generous spirit.

hugs, Betty

Awesome, Derek! It's great to get reminded of how we need to stay focused on the basic stuff and not worry about the bigger picture. Do what you do, the best you can, and you'll make it happen. Thanks for sharing!

Lee

Great stuff!

Begs the question....does the future even exist,outside of our imagination?

John

Good point! I once had a dream that my mom cut off the middle finger on her right hand, then walked up to me, clutching it, asking if I could drive her to the hospital. I wrote down the dream and everything.

A few days later, she was mowing the lawn, reached down to get a stick out of it, and cut off the tip of her middle finger on her right hand, clutched a cloth to it tightly, then walked over to the neighbor's house to ask if they could drive her to the hospital.

So, did I create that future? Did it happen because I dreamed it? Or was it going to happen anyway, and somehow in my dream I saw it?

Life is awesome.

This website was very true. It got me back on track by realizing that no matter how fickle the music business may be, the fundamentals are always there.

Derek, te estas transformando en mi guru (ja ja ja) y siempre tus articulos y comentarios son un jugo vitaminico en este largo camino. Now in english... Derek you are becoming my GURU ( ja ja ja) and the comments and articles you write are a big vitamin juice in this long way of music... I agree with you, nobody will come to do our job and it's true that is in the little things we do every day about our music that will bring succes... So thank you and we'll keep in touch!

focus on the fundamentals! yes, yes... I need to print that out and tape it to my wall. it's just so darn easy to get distracted or even pulled away by everything. I know it's possible, and I can and will do it! thanks for all these articles which help keep us all on track...

Hey Derek!

What I do know is that, in my little world, the people around me and some far away are waiting for us to finish our cd and send it to them. So in a small circle of people, the music lives and they love it.. If we get to move farther and farther in our influence that is up to destiny .... I am thankful for touching the few with our music, it still lives...

Have a great day Derek!

Rachel

yes is true

I'm in total agreement with this article. We certainly don't know the future we can only view trends and consumer behavior based on how we deliver and promote a product or idea and if it catches, we run with it for as long as possible. Connecting with the human emotion to me is the way. There are a lot of great ideas for delivering music and I think we should simply try and be involved in as much of it as possible. Be available in as many places and formats possible.

Mobile media technology has certainly been a big part of the future of music.

It is a known fact that nobody can predict the future. What we can do to make sure that our future, what ever it will turn out to be, will be the best that we can make it is to live in harmony with the laws that govern the universe, See it all here!==> www.apocalypsenot.net

Charley Waco

Derek, my pleasure to put this to you as you may be able to use it.

How many times does a person tell themselves something "CANT" be done and thus prove themselves RIGHT should ever they are caused to attempt to do it. Thats the same/similar to the placebo effect in reverse, many a wise man has said you become what you think about but remember also you DON'T become what you don't think about.

"Fortune Telling" is a derivative of an ART of knowing oneself which should be forever unfolding a part of the future KNOWN and UNKNOWN alas which has been lost to most.

Respects.

OZ

This is such a good post, and I’ve been thinking similar thoughts lately about the desire--including my own--to want to have predictability about the future. Related to the need to hear speculation about it. And how many gasbags on TV waste precious time in this very domain.

Thanks Derek for the insight on the issue. It's an awesome thing to put life's simple realities into perspective, realizing that so many others share your same experiences, wants, needs and goals.

While I would whole heartily agree that no one can predict the future, one must always be willing to do thought experiments with future possibilities.

The universe is flexible, which is why the future cannot be predicted, and this flexibility allows us to imagine great futures and work towards them.

You don't know the future until it arrives, but I had a freakish revelation the other day when I went through some stuff from a few years back. There was a piece of paper I had used for an exercise. I had written down the best things I could imagine happening to me. Apart from one or two really outrageous ones they all have come true over a period of seven years. And who knows, those outrageous ones may just come true over the next couple of years as well.

BTW, they came true in a quiet sort of way and not always literally, but in spirit. So there...

Loved your website Derek. It's beautiful and inspirational. The world needs more sites like yours. It's true that no one can predict the future but we can certainly achieve our goals by focusing and believing in ourselves and not letting fear overcome our lives.

With courage, determination and hard work, ANYTHING is possible!

"You know that people love a memorable melody."

THE LIGHT BULB IS SHINING LIKE NEVER BEFORE!

Yes I do know people love a memorable melody, but in the Smooth Jazz world, complexity seems to rule.
But now I think of Kenny G's "Songbird".
NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK OF THE SONG, IT SOLD WAY OVER A MILLION COPIES AND PUT HIM ON THE MAP.

Now, I am going to copy what I just wrote and paste it over my keyboard.
K.I.S.S. works; complexity don't!

Good advice.

Derek,
Thanks for keeping us focused on the elements we have control over. This way we can put our creative energies to work more efficiently.

Very intriguing. It's hard to think that you can't predict any of that. I try not to get stuck in doing music that's "marketable" sometimes, because if it works, it works. Of course, there are some things that need to be done (emotional connection), but it doesn't have to mean "cookie-cutter".

Derek

who could have predicted that Tiny Tim (Herbert Khoury) would have become such a huge hit back in the day? and with a ukelele?
No one can really ever predict anything from one year to the next.

Bill Thurman

great, and simple. Stick to the basics. Quality and connection

Spot on!
I'm not a Bible thumper, but even Jesus Christ said no one knows the future expect for another God.
If you understood that second sentence stay with me.
Certain universal laws ARE true... try to buck them and pay the consequences. To be honest, I truly believe we've seen the America we've all grown up to know and love vanish with this insane health care bill. We can't afford it and it will change life as we know life to be in America. So... as Rodney Dangerfield says in "Caddyshack", ''let's dance!'. That makes as much sense to me as anything I've heard from Washington D.C. in the past 7 years.

This is true as much for your music business success as it is for artistic success. It's back to fundamentals:

People buy from those they know, they like and they trust
-- no one knows via what avenue or technology they'll get to know you.

Systems will enable you to work smarter, create a consistent level of quality and have a life.
-- no one knows what new tools will help you create systems. Nor do they know what specific technologies or tools will work best for you.

It comes back to fundamentals. If you want to create great music to play in your living room, it's a hobby. But if you want to create great music that the world hears, that you can make a good living from - then it's a business. And you need the business fundamentals as much as the creative fundamentals.

Thanks for the great thought! Thinking about the future matters but we don't have to pull out our hair trying to predict it.

Derek, I couldn't agree more, regarding our inability to know the future. Since I left the music biz, I got into the financial advisory realm, and it frustrates me to no end how many people expect their advisors to correctly divine the future of the markets. In fact, it also frustrates the heck out of me, how many advisors play into that by pretending they DO know what's coming down the pike. Then they wonder why their clients get upset when their advisors failed to correctly call a top or bottom. Financial gurus set up that expectation by constantly asserting their prowess at predicting the future, then absurdly adopt a "don't blame me" stance when it doesn't come true. Gimme a break. The best way to deal with the future is first to recognize that we don't know what it is, then to find a rational way to deal with that fact. You've hit the nail on the head here - "anybody who pretends to know the future is not to be trusted." Amen.

Indeed nobody knows the future every day I wake up I am glad I awoke. But I do know that the future never ends it just evolves just like everything evolves end never ends. People tend to believe in religions to get a bit of certainty But the things the believe in once were just like people they just evolved like out energy will evolve.
Tom

過去と他人は変えられないけれど、自分と未来は変えることができる！

Aaaaaaaah…Derek, well said and so timely. I can say I am currently doing what you are saying and I am learning something new each day. I am reaching a point where I am now saying, I got it! Better yet, I am getting it, because the sky is the limit. Stay tuned.

"Man weiß, dass man durch das Schreiben vieler Lieder seine Chancen verringert, einen Hit zu schreiben."
Sollte das nicht "vergrößert" heißen?

Everything in this universe is running according to a unique Pattern and if we get that pattern, than we are able to predict future.

Nobody can predict the future.because if you come to know the day you die, the remaining life will be hell for you.

"really connecting with 10 new people every week."

That's something I need to write in big letters on my white board. Thank you once again Derek!

Great

What never changes in (not only) the music business is the greed for money. I met many people from the music business. With some of them I had business with. With others I only watched what they did. Nobody - except a very few - was honest. My advice for musicians starting a band: Never make music for the money. Have maximum fun with what you and your musician friends do. Never loose your humor. Only if you have fun you are able to give your best because the audience is very sensitive and feels right away if they see something real or not. Expect nothing. This way the unexpected might happen. And yes, the impact of a good song never changes. Make songs only for yourself. You have to like your music. If other people like your music as well - that's a bonus. If you feel you got something unique stick to it and keep going. Don't look left or right what other people are doing. If you realize that whenever you play you can create a great emotional connection with your audience - that's it. What never changes is that the audience is looking for a few hours of fun and good time to forget about their daily stress whatever that is. Forget about Facebook, Instagram, Spotify a.s.o. when you develop your act with your first club shows. The audience will use all these tools for you if they love your music. You might reach a point to need some help. If you have a friend with a clear head and he likes to be with your band doing the organisation - that's many times the best because he grows with you. Cheers, Jim

I see where back in 2010 commenter # 79, James, believed that bringing in quarter decent health care would cause the sky to fall. Didn't happen.

What he could have done, besides research at the library, was to make it a point to ask tourists from Europe (who mostly speak English) or folks from the British Commonwealth (Australians are easy to spot, Canadians not so much) whether half decent health care is humanly possible.

Daring to be an artist, or a good citizen, begins with daring to believe it is possible.

I think measuring up to European standards, being as good as Japan, is indeed feasible, if Americans are determined. Americans showed determination with their projects for Manhattan, Apollo and the D-Day landings.

As an artist, it is always within my power to "up my game" if I dare. When I meet a better artist from Europe or Japan I don't despair, I get inspired. I could begin by having the humble grace to do the fundamentals, including practising every day.

Which brings me around to Derek's message of where to focus my efforts.

Love this. I love a good reminder on the importance of Fundamentals. Thank you!