Wanna bet?
By definition, “the future” doesn’t exist. It’s what we call predictions in our imagination.
People think that the more vivid the image is in their mind, the more likely it’s real. They say, “I’m sure it’s going to happen. I can feel it. I can picture it now.”
People are so certain about their predictions.
- “This meeting is going to be so boring.”
- “More funding will help.”
- “If that guy gets elected, it’ll be a disaster.”
- “I’d be happier with a bigger house.”
None of those statements are true, because nobody knows the future. We can’t even predict our own reactions. Winning the lottery or having an accident might be surprisingly bad or good. Even a statement as simple as “I need to relax” might not be true, since it’s a prediction that relaxing will help. The problem is certainty, and not realizing it’s a prediction.
Try asking, “How much do you want to bet?”
Or maybe, “How confident are you about that prediction, from 0 to 100%?”
Instead of black or white, right or wrong, it will probably be degrees, like “80% sure”.
When they realize their confidence is less than 100%, they can consider other possibilities.
Yes, it's healthy to live in a world of probabilities, not certainties. Seth Godin recently did a post where the opposite of "I don't know" is not certainty, instead it's "I"m not sure, but..."
At a more mundane concrete level, (unlike the examples above) I don't say things with certainty unless I have a journalist-like certainty, because I value my word. As a rough fictional character put it, "Can I tear off your arm if you're wrong? If not, then you're not certain."
Incidentally, the journalist thing for being certain of spelling is, "Can I charge you a hundred dollars if you're wrong?" (If not, check the spelling)